Oakdale, Minnesota 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

651
FXUS63 KMPX 191648
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1148 AM CDT Thu Mar 19 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Temperatures well above normal through Saturday.

- Snow melt will continue. Most locations should lose their
  snow cover over the next 24 to 48 hours.

- Quiet weather expected throughout the next week, except for a
  chance for light isolated rain showers along a cold front
  Sunday PM.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1109 AM CDT Thu Mar 19 2026

Another pleasant mid-March day has played out across the
region. Lingering areas of dense fog were slow to burn off along
the Minnesota River valley this morning yet there hasn`t been a
significant impact on temperatures so far. Highs have been
increased to match observational trends & should end up in the
upper 40s to mid 50s in the Twin Cities, E MN, and W WI. The
one area to watch is our W MN counties that are a trailing
behind the forecast due to that lingering fog... but mid 50s are
already present just SW of the fog bank. Winds turn to the SE
and increase this afternoon. Mostly sunny skies will give way to
broken mid-level deck building in from the Dakotas late this
afternoon and evening. Temperatures cool this evening and lows
will be in the 30s. Our fog chances tonight into Friday are much
less than they were this morning. Guidance keeps a light wind
present across the region and cloud cover should prevent
temperatures from cooling down to the Td. This present a less
favorable environment for fog development Friday morning.

Friday & Saturday will continue to warm. Our snow pack will continue
to melt and lose influence over the temperatures. Friday with highs
in the 50s and 60s but it will likely remain mostly cloudy. Saturday
will be the peak of the warm up as a thermal ridge moves through
during the daytime. There is higher confidence than yesterday given
the melt rate of our snow pack & better agreement among guidance for
our high temperatures to push well into the 60s on Saturday. Highs
should top out near 70 in the Twin Cities while mid to upper 70s are
possible in SW MN. The NBM has done a reasonable job "catching
up" to the warmer trend on Saturday. The 925mb temperatures
forecast on Saturday continue to impress with values in the +18
to +22C range on the ECMWF. That`s big time warmth and it
wouldn`t shock me to see temperatures push 80 in extreme S/SW MN
Saturday afternoon.

Cooler temperatures arrive Sunday behind a cold front. Guidance
highlights a slight chance of showers that are associated with the
frontal passage Sunday. Any precipitation should be light based on
forecast soundings showing rather meager forcing tied to it. Looking
ahead to next week, we`ll remain dry with seasonable temperatures.
The culprit continues to be the impressive upper level ridge over
the SW CONUS. This ridging will dominate the pattern across the
western half of the country through next week. This will keep the
storm track off to our north and our temperatures rather
pleasant.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1109 AM CDT Thu Mar 19 2026

All sites have improved back to VFR visibility and should remain
there until early Friday morning. Winds will turn from the
east-northeast to the south-southeast this afternoon. Speeds
will increase to 5 to 8kts remain there through the end of the
period. A mid-level cloud deck will build in by the late
afternoon with heights around 10kft. Less confident on fog
development tonight, but have added TEMPO groups to locations
with higher confidence.

KMSP...Another round of fog is possible after 08-10z Friday. I
have opted for a TEMPO group with MVFR visibility while
prevailing 6SM BR. Forecast support a less favorable
environment than this morning as wind speeds remain light, but
not calm.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR. Wind SE to SW 5-10kts.
SUN...VFR, chc -SHRA/MVFR late. Wind N 10-15kts.
MON...VFR. Wind SW to S 5-10kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BPH
AVIATION...BPH